Latest economic data paints same picture: Missouri in bottom half of states

Economy |
By Rik W. Hafer | Read Time 3 minutes minutes

The Bureau of the Census recently released its 2014 American Community Survey (www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/).   Based on two key measures—income and education—Missouri ranked in lower half of all states.

                The Survey provides a current, comprehensive look at various characteristics of American society, from economic to social to demographic.  The data are available at the national and state level.  Though there are hundreds of possible data sets to look at, I chose two that are key indicators of Missouri’s current and future economic health:  household income and educational attainment.        

Missouri ranked 36th in median household income when compared with all other states.  (The median means there are just as many households above this number as below.) The national median household income at $53,657, and the number for Missouri is $48,363.  At least we’re better off than Mississippi, where the median household income was only $39,680.  In terms of education, the percentage of adults with a bachelor’s degree or more shows how well Missouri is doing at producing (and keeping) or attracting from other places those individuals ready for the modern workplace.  Here again Missouri’s record is mediocre at best:  27.5 percent of Missouri adults have a BA or better, below the national average of 30.1 percent.  Missouri ranks 32nd on this measure of education.

                Are the two related?  The weight of evidence says yes: better educated people tend to earn higher incomes.  The 2014 Survey data show that of the top 25 states in terms of median household income, on average 32 percent of the adults had least a BA.  For the bottom 25 states (in terms of income) on average just a little more than one-quarter of the adults had at least a BA.  Moreover, if you statistically compare the median household income and BA attainment data, the correlation (how closely they are related statistically) between these two series is 0.83.  With a correlation of 1.0 representing one-to-one correspondence between the two, this suggests that median household income and education are related.

                Is this correlation reflecting the fact that more education is associated with higher income, or is it that higher income areas attract those with more education?  Either way, Missouri is coming up short.  We are not generating and keeping those with college degrees nor are we attracting them from other places.  Continued failure to do so will ensure a lackluster economic future.

About the Author

Rik Hafer is an associate professor of economics and the Director of the Center for Economics and the Environment at Lindenwood University in St. Charles, Missouri.  He was previously a distinguished research professor of economics and finance at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville. After receiving his Ph.D. from Virginia Tech in 1979, Rik worked in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from 1979 to 1989, rising to the position of research officer. He has taught at several institutions, including Saint Louis University, Washington University in Saint Louis, the Stonier Graduate School of Banking, and Erasmus University in Rotterdam. While at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville, Rik served as a consultant to the Central Bank of the Philippines, as a research fellow with the Institute of Urban Research, and as a visiting scholar with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and St. Louis. He has published nearly 100 academic articles and is the author, co-author, or editor of five books on monetary policy and financial markets. He also is the co-author of the textbook Principles of Macroeconomics: The Way We Live. He has written numerous commentaries that have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the St. Louis Business Journal, the Illinois Business Journal, and the St. Louis Beacon. He has appeared on local and national radio and television programs, including CNBCs Power Lunch.

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