Since its peak in 2007, Missouri’s public school enrollment has dropped by about 40,000 students. Analyses of trends in private school enrollment and homeschooling in the state suggest that about half of those students switched to a non-public school option. The other half? They weren’t born.
The size of Missouri’s kindergarten classes is getting smaller. The birth rate peaked in the state in 2008. Five years later, kindergarten enrollment in the state peaked at nearly 72,000 children. Since then it has steadily declined and total kindergarten enrollment is down by 10,000 students. The chart below illustrates the decline:
Missouri Public Schools Kindergarten Enrollment
It doesn’t take a demographer to see where total enrollment is going. Ultimately, every public school grade will be down by at least 10,000 students—which is a total of 130,000 from peak enrollment in the state.
There will no doubt be handwringing about teacher layoffs, school closings, and consolidation. But anyone who had been paying attention could have planned for this. We’ve had a decade to adjust our perspective.
