Movin’ On Out: Missouri’s Migration Patterns Since 2004

Business Climate |
By Rik W. Hafer | Read Time 1 minute minutes

Missouri’s economy has grown at a slower pace over the past decade than every state in the nation, with the exception of Michigan. Job growth also has lagged. In this essay, we look at several data sources to see whether this unimpressive economic track record is reflected in another indicator of economic success: migration. It seems reasonable to argue that in relatively bad economic conditions individuals will, if able, move to areas offering more jobs, higher incomes, or even more favorable tax climates. Relying on data sources as varied as moving companies to the Census Bureau and the IRS, our evidence reveals that, especially since 2007, more of Missouri’s residents have relocated out of the state than others have moved in. If a greater proportion of those individuals leaving the state are in higher income brackets or are more educated, this will have important and unpleasant consequences for Missouri’s future economic growth.

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About the Author

Rik Hafer is an associate professor of economics and the Director of the Center for Economics and the Environment at Lindenwood University in St. Charles, Missouri.  He was previously a distinguished research professor of economics and finance at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville. After receiving his Ph.D. from Virginia Tech in 1979, Rik worked in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from 1979 to 1989, rising to the position of research officer. He has taught at several institutions, including Saint Louis University, Washington University in Saint Louis, the Stonier Graduate School of Banking, and Erasmus University in Rotterdam. While at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville, Rik served as a consultant to the Central Bank of the Philippines, as a research fellow with the Institute of Urban Research, and as a visiting scholar with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and St. Louis. He has published nearly 100 academic articles and is the author, co-author, or editor of five books on monetary policy and financial markets. He also is the co-author of the textbook Principles of Macroeconomics: The Way We Live. He has written numerous commentaries that have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the St. Louis Business Journal, the Illinois Business Journal, and the St. Louis Beacon. He has appeared on local and national radio and television programs, including CNBCs Power Lunch.

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